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哈佛最新报告:全美房源严重不足 房价租金齐涨


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6/19/2018

哈佛最新报告:全美房源严重不足 房价租金齐涨

由哈佛大学联合住房研究中心(JCHS)编制的年度“全国住房状况”报告逐年回顾并评估全美住房。今年在哈佛大学第30届会议上出炉的最新报告显示,全美住房前景越来越糟,不仅房源稀缺,还房价越来越贵。

据房产网站curbed报道,自2008年房地产市场萧条以来,房屋建设每年都在增长,但随着建筑材料、劳动力和土地价格的上涨,建筑业的步伐正在放缓。这导致市场上的住房减少,住房短缺情况恶化。

与此同时,随着失业率回落至危机前的水平,美国每一代人都希望购买房屋,导致对住房供不应求,尤其是在大城市。结果还包括房价飙升、租金上涨幅度超过低收入美国人和中产阶级的工资增长。

报告强调了以下几大关键因素,以及它们如何造成美国住房市场的可负担问题。

建设成本+土地使用调控放缓住房建设

泡沫经济前,美国住房供过于求。今天,我们面临相反的问题:住房短缺。住房建筑每年都在增长,而这种增长呈现出放缓的迹象。

根据联合国人居署的报告,2017年单户住房建设开工增长9.4%,完工增长8.8%。多户住房开工率下降9.7%,完工率上涨11.3%。该报告得出结论,虽然多户住宅的下降令人担忧,但新住房渠道依然强劲。

住宅建设受到几个因素的阻碍,导致了住房价格的上涨,特别是对中低收入美国人而言。在木材价格暴涨的带动下,2016年至2017年间建筑材料的成本累计上涨4%。除了成本增加之外,劳动力短缺也减缓了建筑的步伐。土地也变得更加稀缺,围绕土地开发的繁文冗节阻碍了建筑的密度增加。

好消息是,多年来建筑商和开发商专注于高端市场,如今小型独栋住宅和制造住房的建设继续快速增长。不过,低价住房仅占单户住宅的22%,低于1999年至2007年的平均33%。

经过多年的推迟,千禧一代进入了购房市场

住房建设步伐缓慢的同时,千禧一代终于进入了购房市场,住房需求已经摆脱了危机后的低谷。与他们的父母或亲戚一起生活的千禧一代的比例仍然是26%,另外还有9%的千禧一代与非家庭成员合住。这意味着仍有可能再次出现新一代千禧一代,他们将形成新的家庭模式,并进一步增加这一代人的住房需求。

与此同时,老龄化的婴儿潮一代促进了65岁以上人口的增长,在过去的十年中,这一数字已经超过700万户。他们活得更久、更独立、更喜欢呆在家中。结果,这类人口的房屋售出量比过去减少,促成了现有住房销售短缺。

报告指出,移民在迁移期间对住房需求做出贡献,但更重要的是稳定了经济下滑期间的需求。在2006年至2016年期间,约150万外国出生的家庭当上房主,抵消了本土出生房主多达110万的下降。

随着特朗普总统严厉打击非法移民和挫伤合法移民的积极性,人口普查局预计移民比率比特朗普就职前低。尽管如此,2040年移民人口增长的比例将从今天的42%上升到67%。

房屋所有权稍微反弹,老年人处于主导地位

受到低利率的推动,首次购房者获得抵押贷款,房屋拥有率终于出现转机。从某种角度来看,2017年是美国房屋所有权旺盛的一年。大约110万美国人成为房主,这是大衰退以来的最高水平。

今年夏天,购房市场或许是“有史以来竞争最激烈的”。受到房价上涨、可负担性以及库存有限等因素影响,购房者心力交瘁。特别是沿海大都市的房价飙升,恶化了地域不平衡和差距。

洛杉矶的房屋拥有率为48%,匹兹堡则为70%以上。洛杉矶中等收入家庭仅能负担占出售房屋11%的住房抵押贷款,而在匹兹堡,即使是最低收入阶层的家庭也能负担26%。这一差距有助于解释年轻“有房族”的持续滞后问题。虽然25-34岁人群去年的房屋所有权增加了0.6%,但他们仅39.2%的房屋拥有率远低于30年前的45.5%。

尽管千禧一代和年轻人常常主导有关房屋所有权的话题,但老年公民实际上可能会做更多的事情来塑造真正的市场。与美国整体人口一样,房主的平均年龄也上升,从1990年的50岁增加到2016年的56岁。在对不同年龄阶段人口的调查中,65岁以上的老人是唯一一个2017年房屋拥有率(78.7%)比1987年(75.4%)更高的人口。

房主的老龄化有着重大意义。 2014年的一项调查发现,88%的老年人希望随着年龄的增长而呆在家中。如果他们忠于意图,他们将为家居装修带来巨大商机,重点是便利和生活无障碍和。它还令市场承受更多的压力,为千禧一代制造库存紧张。

租房仍然是“双城记”:富人的城市vs穷人的城市

去年房屋所有权出现小幅上涨,与此同时,租房人口从36.6%下降到36.1%,35岁以下的租户下降了22.4万。这表明经济实力的提升令住房市场得到改善,租赁市场也略有回软。

但就像去年一样,租赁市场越来越迎合豪华公寓居民的需求,低收入租户则挣扎求存。

多户住宅继续向豪宅倾斜,追逐不断扩大的市场并提供更多设施(2016年,86%的新公寓拥有游泳池,89%拥有室内洗衣房)。去年高收入租户的数量增加,年收入超过10万美元的租户增长了5%(他们的租房比例为19%,租金创历史新高)。多户住宅去年交付了336,000个新建单元,并以70年代以来前所未有的速度增长。

豪华建筑有助于抵消土地和建筑成本上涨的影响,后者是新单元租金持续上涨的主要因素,租金从2012年的1,090美元激增至2017年的1,550美元。芝加哥和迈阿密新单元的平均租金现在都超过2000美元。

这与低收入租户所面临的现实形成鲜明对比,自2015年以来,现有库存基本保持不变。

根据全国低收入住房联盟的数据,每100名低收入租户中只有35个出租单元可以负担得起,而且还有720万单元的短缺。在全国50个主要大都会区域,低收入租客都远远超过可负担住房数量。转换、拆迁和其他损失严重削减了可负担住房的库存。在1990年至2016年间,已有超过250万个租金低于800美元的住宅单元消失。

住房挑战:库存短缺和巨大需求

简而言之,美国太多地区的住房太贵了住不起。 2016年,近三分之一的美国人和47%的租房者用收入的30%以上来支付住房。大约1100万人为住房花费了一半的收入。

在全美各个角落都会感受到这种压力,几乎所有的人口,从城乡到年轻人(30岁以下的租户中有44%,65岁以上的租户中有54%的人,入不敷出)。联邦政府没有提供足够的援助。

根据HUD最差案例住房需求报告,2005年至2015年期间,“极度低成本负担或生活条件不足或过度拥挤的极低收入家庭”的租户数量从6个增加到830万个,而无家可归者在经历多年下滑后2017年增加了3,800。

自30年前的第一份国家住房报告以来,全美极低收入家庭的数量增加了600万,达到1900万,同时租赁援助和低成本住房库存有所减少。没有领导、资源或各级政府的共同努力,这个问题只会越来越严重。


6/19/2018

THE STATE OF THE NATION'S HOUSING 2018

Since 1988, our annual State of the Nation’s Housing report has provided an overview of housing market conditions in the U.S. As we mark the 30th anniversary, this year’s report not only examines recent trends, but assesses whether and how key metrics have changed over the last three decades and serves as a yardstick to measure whether or not the nation has met its goal of producing decent and affordable homes for all.

DOWNLOAD THE STATE OF THENATION'S HOUSING 2018 PDF


EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

The inaugural State of the Nation’s Housing report in 1988 noted that the majority of Americans were well housed and some conditions have improved since then. More than 40 million units have been built over the past three decades, accommodating 27 million new households, replacing older homes, and improving the quality of the nation’s housing stock.

Nevertheless, several challenges highlighted in the first report persist today. Homeownership rates among young adults are even lower than in 1988, and the share of cost-burdened renters is significantly higher, with almost half of all renters paying more than 30 percent of their income for housing. Soaring housing costs are largely to blame. The national median rent rose 20 percent faster than overall inflation between 1990 and 2016 and the median home price rose 41 percent faster. While better housing quality accounts for some of the increased costs, higher costs for building materials and labor, limited productivity gains, increased land costs, new regulatory barriers, and growing income inequality all played major roles as well.

RISING HOUSE PRICES & HOMEOWNERSHIP RATE

The national homeownership rate ticked up in 2017 for the first time in 13 years, buoyed by growth in the number of homeowner households. Despite the ongoing rise in home prices, low interest rates have helped to keep monthly housing costs relatively affordable for new homeowners. Still, the upward climb of interest rates, limited inventory of homes for sale, and widespread increases in student loan debt raise important concerns about the ability of many potential buyers to access homeownership


HOUSEHOLD GROWTH LAGGING DESPITE STRONG ECONOMY

With its oldest members now in their late 20s and early 30s, millennials are forming new households in greater numbers and moving to different states in search of opportunity. At the same time, more than 10,000 baby boomers are turning 65 every day, raising the average age of US households. Although wealth is growing, homeowners and those at the top have captured most of the gains, leaving millions of households with little or no wealth. Going forward, immigration will become an increasingly large, albeit unpredictable, source of population growth and therefore housing demand.


CONTINUING CONSTRAINTS ON THE SINGLE-FAMILY MARKET

New construction, home sales, and housing prices ticked up modestly in 2017, but a slowdown in the multifamily sector and the rising costs of residential construction are preventing a stronger upturn in housing markets. Intense competition for the historically low supply of existing homes on the market has pushed up home prices in most metros, raising further concerns about affordability.


MULTIFAMILY CONSTRUCTION LEVELS OFF AS VACANCIES RISE IN HIGHER-PRICED RENTAL UNITS

More than 38 million US households have housing cost burdens, leaving little income left to pay for food, healthcare, and other basic necessities. As it is, federal housing assistance reaches only a fraction of the large and growing number of low-income households in need. Between the shortage of subsidized housing and the ongoing losses of low-cost rentals through market forces, low-income households have increasingly few housing options. Meanwhile, the rising incidence and intensity of natural disasters pose new threats to the housing stocks of entire communities.


AFFORDABILITY PRESSURES EASE BUT REMAIN WIDESPREAD

More than 38 million US households have housing cost burdens, leaving little income left to pay for food, healthcare, and other basic necessities. As it is, federal housing assistance reaches only a fraction of the large and growing number of low-income households in need. Between the shortage of subsidized housing and the ongoing losses of low-cost rentals through market forces, low-income households have increasingly few housing options. Meanwhile, the rising incidence and intensity of natural disasters pose new threats to the housing stocks of entire communities.


ABOUT JCHS

The Harvard Joint Center for Housing Studies advances understanding of housing issues and informs policy.  Through its research, education, and public outreach programs, the center helps leaders in government, business, and the civic sectors make decisions that effectively address the needs of cities and communities.  Through graduate and executive courses, as well as fellowships and internship opportunities, the Joint Center also trains and inspires the next generation of housing leaders.













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