7/22/2019 美国按揭利率在2018年11月以来一直在下降，美国楼市应该很红火？恰恰相反，美国房地产销售数据非常然人失望。究其原因，是国际买家大幅减小对美国楼市的风险敞口。  National Association of Realtors 年度报告称，其实国际买家对美国楼市的冷淡始于2017年，2019年更甚：外国居民的购买额下降43%，至447亿美元；非居民外国人购买量下降56%，至332亿美元，与2011年持平。 所有国际买家在2018年4月至2019年3月期间，对美国楼市的购买金额同比下降36%，比2017年的购买规模下降49%，从总量1530 亿美元下降到780亿美元，低于2012年水平。 据 National Association of Realtors 定义，外国居民指非美国公民是最近移民（购买时不到两年）或非移民签证持有人，因就业、教育或其他原因在美国居住超过六个月，该群体占美国楼市买家的60%；非居民外国人指在美国境外拥有永久居留权的非美国公民，他们通常拥有非移民签证，购买美国房产用于投资、度假或不到6个月的在美居住时间，占国际买家的40%。  报告显示，特大城市的高端房产受国际买家撤退的影响最大，在某种程度上，国际买家购买意愿下降导致美国大城市高端房产供应过剩，达成交易的时间更长，甚至可能导致价格下跌。 Principal,  Tel: (301)906-6889; (240)912-6290 Licensed in MD, VA, DC, PA WeChat ID: sunnychenyuqing NMLS # 1220187 美国房产前5大国际买家分别是中国、加拿大、印度、英国和墨西哥。其中，中国买房客在美国的房地产购买金额为134亿美元，同比降58%；加拿大的购买金额为80亿美元，同比降58%；印度购买金额为69亿美元，同比降12%；英国的购买金额为38亿美元，同比降60%；墨西哥购买金额为23亿美元，同比降75%。  调查显示，国际买家减少美国房产购买的原因中，居第一位的是“找不到可买的房产”；排第二位的原因是，美国房产太贵；接下来才是融资难和移民问题。  中国一直是美国房产的最大买家，对于很多专注于国际楼市买家的美国开发商和房产经纪公司来说，无法找到替代中国买家的客户。 除了买家减少，中国人在美国置业的均价水平也在下降。最近一段时间，中国人购房价格中位数从2016年的峰值下降了16%，降至45.4万美元。早在2016年，中国买家支付的价格是美国楼市价格中位数的两倍；在最近一期，他们支付的价格比同期美国楼市价格中位数只高75%。  英国是美国高端房产的买家，位居第一，中位数达到510700美元，同比上涨19%。 该报告还显示，国际买家通常青睐佛罗里达州、加利福尼亚州、德克萨斯州、亚利桑那州和新泽西州。 在所有的国际买家中，只有47%的人会把美国的房产作为主要住所。 01/02/2019 中国过去几年在全球各国疯买房地产炒房，推升各地房价，但随着该国政府当前严加控管资金外流，中国投资人今年恐将大规模从海外房市撤退。  据《华尔街日报》报导，根据《Real Capital Analytics》数据指出，去年第3季，中国财团及投资人分别在欧洲和美国卖出2.333亿美元（约新台币71.8亿元）和逾10亿美元（约新台币307.51亿元）的旅馆、商办与其它商用不动产，但却仅买入5810万美元（约新台币17.86亿元）和2.31亿美元（约新台币71.03亿元）的房产。 而随着《Real Capital》此前报告显示，中国和香港用于购买房地产的跨境资本，已从2017年的17%流量降至10%。分析师也认为这股趋势将延续至今年，因当前中国政府正专注于稳定人民币走势，不太可能放宽海外投资规定。 事实上，中国投资人占欧美房市比例其实不高，但自2014年以来，中国便以购买欧美天价标的物者闻名，同时大举购买开发项目，难免使市场心理遭受冲击。而随着中国投资人大规模撤资，房地产研究机构Green Street Advisors也预计，美国房市将在今年"温和"下降。  Offering serious and challenging mathematics to intellectually gifted students  01/02/2019  By Esther Fung and Dominique Fong Chinese investors will likely continue beating a retreat from the world’s top commercial real-estate markets in 2019, adding to the downward pressure on prices from rising interest rates. For years, the increasing flow of Chinese capital, alongside investments from other foreign countries, helped push property values higher. But now, the opposite is happening as Beijing continues its tight restrictions on capital outflows. Chinese conglomerates and other institutional investors sold $233.3 million of European hotels, office buildings and other commercial property in the third quarter, while purchasing only $58.1 million of European property, according to data from Real Capital Analytics. In the U.S., they offloaded more than $1 billion while purchasing $231 million during the same period. Analysts predict the trend will continue in 2019. With Beijing’s focus on keeping the yuan stable, China’s top policy makers show few signs of easing stricter rules on overseas investment. The Chinese currency fell 5.7% against the U.S. dollar in 2018 due to an economic slowdown. The slide will likely continue in 2019, especially if the U.S.-China trade fight escalates, analysts say. The selling of commercial property by Chinese investors “has more to do with domestic politics than market conditions,” said Tom Leahy, a senior director at Real Capital. The exodus of Chinese investors comes as rising interest rates imperil long-running bull markets in many U.S. and European cities. Commercial property is extremely interest-rate sensitive because buyers typically use high leverage to finance purchases and institutional investors often shift funds from property to bonds when rates rise. Real-estate research firm Green Street Advisors predicts there will be a “modest” property-price decline in the U.S. in 2019. “You’re probably going to see some cracks” in property prices, said Cedrik Lachance, director of Green Street’s REIT research. Many executives think that prices of major property asset classes such as apartments, office, industrial and retail are fairly priced or overpriced, according to a survey of emerging real-estate trends by the Urban Land Institute and PricewaterhouseCoopers LLC. To be sure, Chinese investors make up only a small portion of U.S. and European real-estate markets. In London and other major European markets, investors from South Korea and Singapore have partly made up for the departure of many Chinese players, said Real Capital Analytics. But Chinese investors had been known for setting record prices for trophy buildings on both sides of the Atlantic and their pullback could have an impact on market psychology, analysts say.   APLUS教学中心 | 一对一辅导服务中心 | 申请咨询顾问中心 Starting in 2014, Chinese investors went on a global expansion spree, buying office buildings and development projects to diversify their holdings and to seek steadier returns. They were aided by cheap bank loans, which propelled some of them to become more aggressive in picking ambitious projects at record prices. Beijing policy makers stepped in as concerns intensified over the health of Chinese investor balance sheets and systemic risks to the overall Chinese financial system. “Most [Chinese investors] are finding it difficult to borrow wherever they are,” said James Shepherd, head of greater China research at real-estate services firm Cushman & Wakefield . Major deals in Europe in 2018, included the sale of Ropemaker Place, a prime office building in London, by AXA Investment Managers, on behalf of a consortium that included Chinese state-owned Gingko Tree Investment. Another seller was Chinese conglomerate Hualing Group, which sold a stake in the residential project Middlewood Locks in Manchester. Anbang Insurance Group Co., known for buying New York’s Waldorf Astoria for $1.95 billion in 2015, the highest price ever for a U.S. hotel, is in the process of selling a portfolio of hotels that it acquired two years ago for $5.5 billion. The Waldorf, currently under renovation, isn’t part of that sale. Some Chinese companies said that the selling is part of the normal course of business as they are taking profit ahead of a widely expected downturn in prices. Some Chinese investors remain active in global markets. Others continue to look for properties, such as industrial real estate, that align with China’s global economic plan, known as the Belt and Road Initiative. But the days of Chinese investors snapping up high-profile deals in many Western markets are likely over for now. A report by Real Capital on the first three quarters of 2018 noted that Chinese and Hong Kong cross-border capital to purchase real estate peaked in 2017 as 17% of overall global cross-border flows and has fallen to 10% in year-to-date 2018. “It appears that capital controls have restrained investment activity from China and from related Hong Kong asset managers,” the report said. Source: https://www.wsj.com/articles/chinese-investors-back-away-from-global-property-markets-11546351201 |         Principal, Tel: (301)906-6889; (240)912-6290 Licensed in MD, VA, DC, PA WeChat ID: sunnychenyuqing NMLS # 1220187 President, Principal Loan Consultant, Leader Funding, Inc.  电话: (240) 784-6645 Rockville, MD Phone: 301-366-3497 |
