Will changing demographics affect the 2018 midterms?

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Will changing demographics affect the 2018 midterms?

William H. Frey

Demographics in the United States are changing rapidly, as growth explodes among minority populations and slows within the white population. Brookings Senior Fellow William Frey, author of “Diversity Explosion: How New Racial Demographics are Remaking America,” explains how the demographic transformation of the United States affects voting patterns and could impact the results of the 2018 midterm elections.

What you need to know:

  • The United States is undergoing profound demographic changes. There is huge growth in racial minority populations, especially new minorities—Hispanics, Asians, and people of two or more races. This growth has exploded over the last 10 to 15 years.
  • Counter to that is very slow growth, and soon decline, in the white population, which is aging very rapidly. The only part of the white population that is growing is the over-age 65 population, as Baby Boomers move into that age group.
  • These changes are affecting voting in the United States. Most of the minority populations, especially African-Americans, have voted strongly Democratic for the last 10 years or so. In fact, the black population has voted Democratic going all the way back to Franklin Delano Roosevelt.
  • In the last 10 or 15 years, we have also seen relatively strong Democratic support among Hispanics.
  • Asians voted Republican in the 1990s but that changed after 2000 and has continued in all the presidential and other elections since then.
  • The majority of the white population has voted Republican in every presidential election since 1968.
  • States that are becoming more racially diverse, or having fewer whites proportionately and more blacks, Hispanics, and Asians proportionately, tend to vote more Democratic, which has been the case in the last three presidential elections.
  • “White anxiety” refers to white Americans’ concern over the changing demography of the United States—the fact that we are becoming more racially diverse. This is especially prevalent among older whites who think of America as a different kind of place racially than it is becoming with the growth of immigrants and racial minorities.
  • In 2016 Republican candidate Donald Trump’s message, which included many negative feelings toward racial minorities, fanned the flames of white anxiety and influenced the voting patterns of older whites.
  • Millennials—a younger and more diverse generation—have taken a larger part in elections, and could influence results if they turn out for the midterm elections.
  • This “cultural generation gap”—older whites vs. younger minorities—will play out and eventually younger minorities will have a much bigger say in elections going forward.

Ann Coulter talks Trump rally, midterm races

Published on Oct 13, 2018

Conservative columnist weighs in on the big races on 'Watters' World.'


白人老化、年輕少數族裔增加 人口消長牽動選舉

(World Journal) 特派員許惠敏



華府智庫布魯金斯研究院資深研究員佛里(William Frey)在15日發布的報告「多元爆炸 : 新的族裔人口組成如何重塑美國」指出,「新少數族裔」(New Minorities)在過去15至20年間增長顯著,反之白人人口老化和成長停滯、甚至負成長,唯一成長的年齡層是65歲以上戰後嬰兒潮。佛里的「新少數族裔」是西語裔、亞裔和兩種以上的混血族裔。

佛里認為,「老白人v.少數族裔年輕人」的「文化代溝」(cultural generation gap)現象,說明美國族裔人口消長和新貌,對政治和選情的影響,將越來越大。年輕而更多元的千禧世代,如果多數都出來投票,將牽動期中選舉結果。





Comstock for Congress

10 Results for Virginia 10

  • Cut Taxes for Families and Businesses
  • Increased Funding for School Safety and Prevention of Gun Violence
  • Cracked Down on MS-13 Gangs
  • Rebuilt Our Military
  • Fought Sexual Harassment in the Workplace
  • Prevention and Treatment for Opioid and heroin Addiction
  • New Funding for Childhood Cancer, Alzheimer's, and Medical Research
  • Grants for our Firefighters to Protect our Communities
  • Opened a new veterans Center in Leesburg
  • Prosecution of Online Human Trafficking
"I have always focused on getting results for Virginia's 10th District and the priorities of my constituents to improve their job opportunities, health, public safety, and quality of life. For over 35 years, I have lived in this District, worked, raised a family, and served our diverse community which leads the country in innovation, talent, service, and giving back to improve the lives of others."
Barbara Comstock

Oct. 10, 2018Polling from Virginia Rep. Barbara Comstock’s campaign shows a tight race in the 10th District. (Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call file photo)


10/14/2018) "今晚有60多人参加了支持Comstock的活动。"


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