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Under Trump, Job Market Has Improved More for Clinton Supporters


Under Trump, job market has improved more for Clinton supporters

Published on Sep 5, 2017


Under Trump, Job Market Has Improved More for Clinton Supporters

Jed Kolko SEPT. 5, 2017

Since President Trump took office in January, job growth has continued to be robust, and the unemployment rate has continued to fall. Republicans have become far more confident about the economy since the election.

Democrats, meanwhile, have grown far less confident about the economy. But the job market has improved at least as much for those likelier to be Hillary Clinton supporters as for Trump supporters. In fact, the drop in unemployment and the rise in wages have been stronger for them by some measures.

These estimates are based on data that the Labor Department uses for the monthly jobs reports, combined with a model of voting based on demographics.

Contrary to popular perception, likelier Trump supporters were doing better over all in the labor market than likelier Clinton supporters both before and after the election. Throughout 2016 and in 2017, both the unemployment rate and a broader measure, U-6, which captures people who are working part-time but want a full-time job and those who would like a job but have given up looking out of frustration, were lower for likelier Trump supporters than for likelier Clinton supporters. Median full-time wages were higher for likelier Trump supporters, too. These results reflect the fact that Trump voters were older and whiter than Clinton voters.

Despite less current hardship, likelier Trump supporters might have had more economic anxiety about the future, because they tend to be less educated and likelier to work in so-called routine jobs that are at higher risk from automation. That’s consistent with my previous findings about greater automation risk in redder counties and metro areas.

What has happened since Inauguration Day? The unemployment rate has fallen by equal amounts for both groups: to 3.6 percent in July from 4 percent in January for likelier Trump supporters, and to 4.5 percent from 4.9 percent for likelier Clinton supporters. The prime-age employment-population ratio has risen by 0.4 percentage points for both groups. This measure, unlike the unemployment rate, accounts for whether people have dropped out of the labor force entirely. The prime-age labor force participation rate has also increased similarly for both groups.

On other measures, likelier Clinton supporters have seen more improvement than likelier Trump supporters since January. The broader U-6 rate has fallen by 0.8 points for likelier Clinton supporters and by 0.6 points for likelier Trump supporters. And median usual weekly earnings are up 2.9 percent for likelier Clinton supporters versus 1.8 percent for likelier Trump supporters. The story is similar if we look at eight months of data after Election Day instead of six months after Inauguration Day.

Why are labor market gains tilting in a different direction than economic confidence? The rise in political tribalism in one obvious explanation for partisan differences in confidence in the economy.

But there are other reasons. The improvement in labor market outcomes for likelier Clinton supporters might, in part, be a closing of gaps that widened during the recession, such as racial differences in the unemployment rate. (Blacks, who tended to support Mrs. Clinton, endured more economic hardship during the recession than whites.) Also, economic confidence predicts actual behaviors weakly at best.

Debates continue about how much economics affected the 2016 vote, but an improving job market is both a core aspiration and a bragging point for incumbent politicians regardless of party. If jobs and wages matter in how Americans judge presidents and how they eventually vote, the post-inauguration decline and persistent partisan divide in Trump’s approval rating are all the more striking given the bigger economic lift received by likelier Clinton supporters.

Only seven months into the new administration, it’s far too soon to say whether the Trump years will eventually bring more jobs and higher wages to his base than to his detractors. But so far, the difference in labor market success has, if anything, gone in the opposite direction of the partisan swing in economic confidence.

Methodology

The Bureau of Labor Statistics calculates the official unemployment rate and other labor-market indicators from the monthly Current Population Survey (C.P.S.) of households. That survey does not ask respondents whom they voted for or which political party they belong to. But it does ask about demographic variables, including age; race and ethnicity; educational attainment; sex; marital status; presence of dependent children in the household; and state of residence. We used those variables — and the Cooperative Congressional Election Study, which includes more than 40,000 respondents who voted for Donald J. Trump or Hillary Clinton — to predict 2016 vote choice. “Likelier Trump supporters” and “likelier Clinton supporters” in the C.P.S. are defined based on their demographic similarity to actual Trump voters and actual Clinton voters in the C.C.E.S. Estimates of labor market indicators for each group are weighted by the probability of each C.P.S. respondent’s being a likelier Trump supporter or a likelier Clinton supporter. More details are available here; this academic paper takes a similar approach to voting prediction.


Jed Kolko is the chief economist at Indeed.com.






研究:川普上台 喜萊莉·柯林頓支持者反受益

 2017年09月10日 06:01

雖然那些被美國經濟成長遺忘的鄉村人民給川普入主白宮立下汗馬功勞,但一項報告顯示,在勞動力市場上,川普的上任反而對其競選對手喜萊莉·柯林頓的支持者更為有利。

求職網站Indeed首席經濟學者寇爾科(Jed Kolko)近日發表了一份報告,發現那些在大選中更有可能投票給川普的人,其失業率從今年1月的4%下降至7月的3.6%。相比之下,更有可能投票給柯林頓的人群失業率從1月的4.9%降至7月的4.5%。可以看到,在川普任內早期,雙方支持者的失業率都下降0.4%。

然而,如果按照另一種失業率指標,情況就有所不同了。普遍使用的失業率被稱為U-3失業率,這一指標統計的是那些沒有工作,但在最近4周內努力找工作的人群失業率。而另一種被稱為U-6失業率的範圍則更廣,該指標統計的人群還包括了那些兼職工作者等勞動力市場邊緣人群。

如果按照這個指標,柯林頓支持者的失業率自川普上台以來下降了0.8%,而川普支持者的失業率則下降0.6%。同時,柯林頓支持者的周薪中位值則上漲2.9%,川普支持者的這一數值則僅上漲1.8%。

寇爾科表示:「產生這一情況的原因可能是,柯林頓支持者在經濟危機中受創較深,例如非裔人群。這些人的薪資上漲和勞動力市場潛力仍有上升空間。」

消費者信心數據顯示,雖然柯林頓的支持者在川普治下的勞動力市場情況較好,然而民主黨人對美國經濟發展的方向仍然悲觀。相比之下,雖然川普支持者在勞動力市場的境遇較差,但共和黨人最近幾個月對經濟的信心爆棚。寇爾科表示:「美國民眾中政黨依附傾向的興起,無疑讓兩黨對經濟的信心大不相同。」

不過,寇爾科此前曾經指出,由於川普的經濟政策致力於重新恢復那些在技術革新和全球化過程中受創最深的企業和地區,川普的支持者們對經濟持樂觀態度就不足為奇了。

寇爾科在今年早些時候的一份報告中指出:「在那些投票給川普的郡,就業增長十分緩慢,勞動力受教育水平較低,勞工被自動化取代的可能性更大,這些因素助長了當地居民對經濟的焦慮。同時,川普則強調他促進就業的經濟政策,尤其是重振那些已經沒落的產業和地區。因此有經濟學家認為,川普經濟學就是把財富重新分配給那些支持川普的地區。」(記者和釗宇)

原文链接



President Trump's Remarks at Camp David Cabinet Meeting - Sept. 9, 2017




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