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美失業率3.8%達18年最低 亞裔最佳

6/02/2018

美失業率3.8%達18年最低 亞裔最佳

(World Journal) 記者顏伶如/綜合報導

根據勞工部最新公布報告指出,美國在上個月增加了22萬3000個非農就業機會,今年5月份美國失業率降到3.8%,創下18年來新低點,也追平1969年以來美國最低失業率紀錄;如果以族裔區分,亞裔美國人2.1%的失業率最低,是這項紀錄自2003以來的最低紀錄;非洲裔美國人失業率也從今年4月間的6.6%,在5月間降至5.9%。

受到經濟蓬勃成長的帶動,過去幾個月來,美國失業率一路走低,在今年3月為4.0%,4月份降到3.9%,5月更進一步來到3.8%,為2000年迄今的最低點。在5月份當中,美國共計增加了22萬3000個工作機會。

不過,就業市場興旺,意味著聯準會可能將於6月底宣布升息一碼,也可能在今年當中增加升息次數。

由於失業率連創新低,如今不少雇主開始抱怨連續數月徵不到人,找不到足夠的員工填補職缺,對於學歷較低的基層勞工來說,這種狀況是利多消息。

統計顯示,只有高中學歷的美國民眾當中,今年5月份失業率為3.9%,創下過去17年來的最低點。擁有大學畢業的美國民眾當中,今年5月份失業率則為2.0%。

亞裔美國人失業率在2017年5月為3.6%,到了今年4月間已經降至2.8%,5月份又進一步減至只有2.1%。白人失業率在2017年5月份為3.7%,今年4月為3.6%,5月份則為3.5%。

報告指出,目前失業人口平均失業期間為21.3周,較2017年5月份失業長達24.8周縮短許多。

有線電視新聞網(CNN)報導,經濟學者估計,美國失業率接下來仍有繼續降低的空間。

軟體廠商首席經濟學家懷特(Josh Wright)指出:「美國經濟在過去這段期間,出現了驚人成長。」

根據統計,美國經濟已經連續九年成長,美國雇主在過去七年半裡,每個月都有新增職缺。過去一年之間,平均每個月增加19萬1000個職缺。

工資方面,今年5月間勞工工資較去年同期相比,平均增加了2.7%。

若以產業區分,勞工部報告顯示,今年5月全美零售業增加3萬1100個職缺,醫療保健業增加3萬1700個職缺,建築業增加2萬5000個職缺,製造業則新增1萬8000個職缺。

報告指出,過去一年來,工廠職務(factory jobs)共計增加25萬9000個工作機會。

原文链接>>




6/02/2018

US unemployment hits an 18-year low despite trade concerns

By CHRISTOPHER RUGABER, AP ECONOMICS WRITER

Defying fears of a global trade war, U.S. businesses have made it abundantly clear that they see no reason to stop hiring.

Employers added a robust 233,000 jobs in May, up from 159,000 in April, the government said Friday, and helped drive the nation's unemployment rate to an 18-year low of 3.8 percent.

In the midst of all that hiring, the Trump administration has slapped tariffs on steel and aluminum from Europe, Mexico and Canada. The White House is also threatening China with separate duties. And Europe, Mexico, Canada and China have vowed to hit back at U.S. goods.

Yet so far, the trade disputes have done nothing to knock the nearly 9-year-old economic expansion — the second-longest on record — off track. Hiring has actually picked up this year compared with 2017.

"The May jobs report revealed impressive strength and breadth in U.S. job creation that blew away most economists' expectations," said Scott Anderson, chief economist at Bank of the West.

Some economists do remain concerned that the Trump administration's aggressive actions on trade could eventually hamper growth. The direct impact of the tariffs on the nearly $20 billion U.S. economy will likely be scant. But persistent uncertainty about which trading partners might be hit next — and which U.S. products might be penalized in retaliatory moves — could disrupt some companies' expansion plans.

"Risks are brewing ... with the latest round of tariffs on aluminum and steel," said Joseph Song, an economist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch. "However, the concerns so far remain on the periphery."

Should the trade fights worsen, they would most likely affect some of the same industries that have ramped up hiring and lifted the economy. Manufacturers, for example, have added 259,000 jobs in the past year, a 2.1 percent increase. That's the biggest percentage gain in factory jobs since 1995.

Exports have been a big driver of that hiring. In 2017, simultaneous growth in Europe, China, Japan, and some developing countries were a key reason that factory output rose. Now, European officials are threatening to raise tariffs on Harley-Davidson motorcycles and on Levi's jeans.

Roughly an hour before the May employment data was released Friday morning, President Donald Trump appeared to hint on Twitter that a strong jobs report was coming.

"Looking forward to seeing the employment numbers at 8:30 this morning," he tweeted.

The president is normally briefed on the monthly jobs report the day before it is released, and he and other administration officials are not supposed to comment on it beforehand.

Larry Kudlow, the president's top economic adviser, downplayed Trump's tweet.

"He didn't give any numbers," Kudlow said. "No one revealed the numbers to the public."

Investors cheered the jobs data. The Dow Jones industrial average finished up 219 points. Other stock indexes also rose.

The healthy employment figures make it more likely that the Federal Reserve will keep raising interest rates this year — two and possibly three more times, after doing so in March.

Unemployment dropped from 3.9 percent in April. When rounded to one decimal, as the Labor Department typically does, the official jobless rate is now the lowest since April 2000. For women, unemployment has fallen to 3.6 percent, the lowest since 1953.

But the unrounded figure is 3.75 percent, the lowest since December 1969, when it was 3.5 percent. Unemployment remained below 4 percent for nearly four straight years in the late 1960s before reaching 6.1 percent during a mild recession in 1970. It didn't fall below 4 percent again until the dot-com-fueled boom of the late 1990s.

With the unemployment rate so low, businesses have complained for months that they are struggling to find enough qualified workers. But Friday's jobs report suggests that they are taking chances with pockets of the unemployed and underemployed whom they had previously ignored.

Unemployment among high school graduates fell sharply to 3.9 percent, a 17-year low. For black Americans, it hit a record low of 5.9 percent.

And the number of part-time workers who would prefer full-time jobs is down 6 percent from a year ago. That means businesses are converting some part-timers to full-time work.

Companies are also hiring the long-term unemployed — those who have been out of work for six months or longer. Their ranks have fallen by nearly one-third in the past year.

That's important because economists worry that people who are out of work for long periods can see their skills erode.

Those trends suggest that companies, for all their complaints, are still able to hire without significantly boosting wages. Average hourly pay rose 2.7 percent in May from a year earlier, below the 3.5 percent to 4 percent pace that occurred the last time unemployment was this low.

And there may be more of those workers available. The number of involuntary part-time workers is still higher than it was before the 2008-09 recession.

Martha Gimbel, director of economic research at Indeed, the job-listing site, said some of the fastest-growing search terms on the site this year are "full-time" and "9-to-5 jobs," evidence that many people want more work hours.

"That suggests there is still this pool of workers that employers can tap without raising wages," Gimbel said.

Debbie Thomas, owner of Thomas Hill Organics, a restaurant in Paso Robles, California, said that finding qualified people to hire is her biggest challenge. She has raised pay by about a dollar an hour in the past year for cooks and dishwashers but is reluctant to go much higher.

"You don't want to price yourself out of the market," Thomas said.

The report comes amid other signs that the economy is picking up. Consumer spending rose in April at its fastest pace in five months. And companies are also stepping up spending, buying more industrial machinery, computers and software — signs that they're optimistic enough to expand. A measure of business investment rose in the first quarter by the most in 3½ years.

Macroeconomic Advisers, a forecasting firm, said it now foresees the economy expanding at a robust 4.1 percent annual pace in the April-June quarter, which would be the fastest in nearly four years. The economy expanded just 2.2 percent in the first quarter.












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