自1984年來，成功預測每一屆總統大選結果的美利堅大學(American University)政治歷史學家李奇曼(Allan Lichtman)在距離今年總統大選不到三個月之際，預測今年民主黨準候選人白登(Joe Biden)將擊敗川普，入主白宮。
李奇曼預測總統大選自1984年以來九屆全數命中，他於5日在紐約時報社論影片，公開這次的預測。不過他的預測模式使他和少數認為川普總統會贏的分析師被歸在同類；他們被指責忽略詳細的交叉民調分析，也缺乏深入計算現代政治篤信的搖擺州評估資訊。
不過李奇曼說：「民調人員和政治權威老把選舉當作賭馬一樣，但歷史告訴我們，選民不會被選舉的伎倆蒙騙。選民既實際又獨斷，他們看的是白宮掌權的人如何治理國家。」
他也不相信民調，「這對於總統大選結果，一點影響都沒有。」
李奇曼的預測模型檢視13個指標，被統稱為「白宮之鑰」，較著重在總統所屬的執政黨的表現上，對候選人的評估反倒少一些。他在13個指標中，如果看好執政黨就給「是」(true)；但如果出現超過六個「錯」(false)，在野黨也就是白登，預計將贏得總統大選。
李奇曼的13個指標中，白登獲得了七個「是」，宣告「川普總統將輸掉選舉」。其中的指標包括川普治理之下美國的短期和長期經濟、那個黨較受支持，和2018年共和黨輸掉眾院席次等。
川普選舉陣營公關主任墨托(Tim Murtaugh)透過財經新聞網站CNBC對預測展開反擊；他說：「這是選戰和過去不同，民眾想要的選擇再清楚不過了；川普總統為全體美國人達成的政績，對比白登失敗的47年政治生涯，和對極左派的默許，最後做出決定的是美國人民，而不是學術人員和教授。」
李奇曼管預測準備，但仍飽受不少批評和質疑；小布希(George W. Bush)的文膽佛朗姆(David Frum)就說他的預測方式「不懷好意」；數據分析網站「FiveThirtyEight」分析師，2012年大選成功預測每一州勝負的西爾瓦(Nate Silver)，也對他抱持半信半疑的態度。
5/07/2020  川普5日在緬因州登上總統專機。（Getty Images） 英國周日快報報導，雖然美國總統川普出動國民兵鎮暴，引發輿論砲轟，但美國智庫民主研究所最新民調顯示，如果美國總統大選現在舉行，川普會以48%得票率領先民主黨對手白登的47%，另有5%選民未決定。 這篇由周日快報政治總編輯馬多克斯執筆的報導寫道，更重要的是，川普在搖擺州，包括佛州、愛荷華、密西根、明尼蘇達、賓州和威斯康辛州，總體而言，以50%支持率領先白登的44%。 根據民調結果，民主研究所預測，川普會贏得明尼蘇達州和民主黨票倉新罕布夏州，共拿到293張選舉人票，但會輸掉密西根與威斯康辛州，白登則會拿到245張。明尼蘇達州是非裔男子佛洛伊德遭壓頸致死的地方。 令人驚訝的是，美國選民之中，認為川普處理這波抗議潮得當的占56%，不當的占40%。 川普將「反法西斯運動」列為恐怖組織，獲得56%選民認同。同樣也有56%選民認為，白登譴責暴力不夠強烈。 如果要在「維護法律與秩序」和「改善與非裔關係」之間選擇，63%選民會選擇法律與秩序，32%會選擇改善與非裔關係。 民調在6月3日到5日進行，隨機選擇全美1500名可能選民的市話或手機電話來訪問。 6/06/2020 美国新闻界最高荣誉“普利策奖”获得者戴维·凯·约翰斯顿 (David Cay Johnston)6月5日在《每日邮报》发表文章称，就算美国现在局势动荡，暴乱游行不断，病毒肆虐，失业率也居高不下，很多人认为特朗普11月大选会被踢出局，但他依然坚信特朗普会成功连任。 戴维表示，美国正处于水深火热中，自手无寸铁的黑人乔治被警察跪杀后，示威游行不断。抗议者抢劫违法与警察发生冲突，十二个主要城市宣布实行宵禁，至少有24个州的州长部署国民警卫队，另有11000多人被逮捕。新冠肺炎死亡人数超过10万，确诊病例超195万，成百上千万美国人失去工作，这些更是让美国当前的局势雪上加霜。 “许多特朗普的忠实支持者都开始动摇，觉得他可能连任不了，但我研究特朗普32年了，我非常了解他，他多么有野心多么有手段我都清楚，如果你觉得他大选要输，那你就大错特错了”，戴维信心满满地在文章中陈述。 为什么现如今美国形势如此严峻，还坚信特朗普能稳住总统位置呢？戴维解释说，“特朗普总是有能力让美国人民认为他是一个‘非常稳定的天才’，因为特朗普老是宣扬自己是唯一一个能拯救美国的人。不管特朗普是不是胡说八道，只要美国群众信他就可以了。” “目前，美国大部分大公司不想让民主党重新掌权，因为民主党可能会加税，所以这些大公司会通过提供更多就业岗位为特朗普争取赢得大选的机会。” “特朗普的竞选活动正在游说一些可能使他受益的州进行邮政投票，但与此相反，在一些有输票风险的州，特朗普正在努力阻止邮政投票，这是他个人使用的程序，但他坚称是为了防止欺诈行为。" “十一月的时候，我预计特朗普将以多达1600万张选票输掉普选。尽管如此，如果他能赢得选举人团（总共538位选举人）中的270票，他将获得第二个任期。（在2016年，他得了304票）这样一看，他目前43％的支持率似乎并不那么致命。" 6/04/2020 WASHINGTON (Reuters) - President Donald Trump has blamed leftwing extremist groups for instigating nights of looting and violence in cities across the United States, but an intelligence assessment offers limited evidence that organized extremists are behind the turmoil. In part of a June 1 internal intelligence assessment of the protests seen by Reuters, U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS) officials said most of the violence appears to have been driven by opportunists. The assessment, prepared by the department’s intelligence and analysis unit, said there was some evidence based on open-source and DHS reporting that the anti-fascist movement Antifa may be contributing to the violence, a view shared by some local police departments in public statements and interviews with Reuters. Reuters reviewed only a portion of the document and could not determine if it addressed the tactics of the groups involved in the protests in greater detail elsewhere. The part of the document seen by Reuters did not provide any specific evidence of extremist-driven violence, but noted that white supremacists were working online to increase tensions between protesters and law enforcement by calling for acts of violence against both groups. There was no evidence, however, that white supremacists were causing violence at any of the protests, the document said. DHS spokesman Alexei Woltornist said the agency would “hold those responsible for the unrest accountable,” but did not specifically comment on the intelligence assessment.  APLUS教学中心 | 一对一辅导服务中心 | 申请咨询顾问中心  Offering serious and challenging mathematics to intellectually gifted students The White House and the Justice Department did not respond to requests for comment. People took to the streets to protest the killing of a black man, George Floyd, by a white police officer who pinned Floyd’s neck under a knee for nearly nine minutes in Minneapolis on May 25. In the days that followed, protests in several U.S. cities descended into looting and clashes with police officers, who are using a variety of weapons here on protesters. Most protests have been peaceful, and on Tuesday night, there was less looting and vandalism and clashes were more sporadic even as crowds defied curfews. Trump has cast part of the blame for violence on Antifa, which is not an organization but rather an amorphous movement that opposes authoritarianism.  Award-Winning After-School Math Program for K-12 Students As protests intensified over the weekend, U.S. Attorney General William Barr said violence in Minneapolis and other cities was being driven by “far-left extremist groups,” echoing comments Trump had made earlier. Barr said those causing the violence were traveling to hotspots from out of state without elaborating further. Two Justice Department officials who declined to be identified told Reuters they had seen little evidence to support that claim. Court and police records from some of the cities where violence erupted - Baltimore, Minneapolis and Washington - show most of the people the police had charged with rioting, property damage and violent offenses over the weekend lived either in those cities or in nearby suburbs. In Minneapolis, records show 25 of the 312 people booked into the county jail since May 26 listed addresses outside the state.  Still, some local and federal officials cited clear signs of organization behind clashes. A New York City Police Department official said protesters there prepared for a confrontation with police by using scouts, encrypted communications and arranging medical teams in advance. “We’re seeing a lot of outside and independent agitators connected with anarchist groups who are deliberately trying to provoke acts of violence,” said John Miller, the head of the department’s intelligence unit. One senior DHS official said there are “incredibly strong indications” that the violence in some cities was organized. The official cited allegations that New York City protesters tried to bring supplies of rocks, bottles and flammable liquids to protest areas and that protesters in at least two other cities tried to disrupt police radio transmissions. In Las Vegas, assistant sheriff Christopher Jones said much of the looting and destruction was being caused by people taking advantage of the chaos. However, he also said graffiti and property damage which he described as targeting “capitalist structures” suggested Antifa involvement. He added that social media posts showed people expressing views “very consistent” with white supremacist ideology had intermingled with the crowd.  Principal,  Licensed in MD, VA, DC, PA , DE, NC, SC, FL WeChat ID: sunnychenyuqing NMLS # 1220187 Federal authorities said they were beginning to identify people who helped turn the protests violent. The Justice Department filed charges against an Illinois man, Matthew Rupert, after authorities said he posted a Facebook video in which he passed out what appeared to be explosive devices to protesters in Minneapolis, proclaiming at one point: “We came to riot.” Prosecutors said police found more “destructive devices” in his car when he was arrested two days later in Chicago. They did not say whether he claimed to identify with any particular group, either right wing or left wing. Rupert’s attorney did not immediately respond to a request for comment. In New York, prosecutors charged three people with trying to use homemade incendiaries to burn police vehicles, but again did not identify them as belonging to any group. In addition to New York, police in other places said they saw signs that some of the attacks on officers and looting was more organized, though they stopped short of blaming particular groups. Los Angeles Police Chief Michel Moore said on Sunday that a portion of the damage in that city had been caused by people “bent on further destruction,” and that some of the looters targeting stores had by the weekend organized themselves into “caravans” of cars. Philadelphia Police Commissioner Danielle Outlaw said that while protesters there were well coordinated it was “too early to tell” whether specific groups were orchestrating any of the rioting there. Outlaw said police were looking into “known agitators.”  6/04/2020  美国非裔男子弗洛伊德在警方暴力执法下死亡，令许多美国人悲愤，在事发的明尼苏达州明尼阿波利斯市，昨天有许多人到为他设立的临时悼念处献花与留言。（法新社） 根据路透社查阅的一份6月1日的内部情报评估报告，国土安全部官员认为，大部分暴力事件是机会主义者主导。不过报告指出，调查及一些公开信息显示，有一些证据表明，极左派团体“反法西斯主义运动”可能助长了暴力示威。 （华盛顿综合电）美国反种族歧视示威演变成暴力冲突和哄抢行径，总统特朗普把问题归咎于左翼极端主义组织煽动所致，但国土安全部的评估报告指出，大多数暴力活动是机会主义者推动的，没有充分证据显示这是有组织的极端主义者挑起的。 根据路透社查阅的一份6月1日的内部情报评估报告，国土安全部官员认为，大部分暴力事件是机会主义者主导。不过报告指出，调查及一些公开信息显示，有一些证据表明，极左派团体“反法西斯主义运动”（Antifa）可能助长了暴力示威。 调查也发现，一些白人至上主义者在网上煽动示威者和执法人员之间的紧张关系，但没有证据显示他们引发任何暴力冲突。 国土安全部发言人沃尔顿恩斯特受询时强调，当局会“追究造成骚乱者的责任”，但没有进一步说明该部的评估报告。 美国明尼苏达州最大城市明尼阿波利斯一名非裔男子弗洛伊德5月25日遭白人警察暴力执法致死，引发全美各地民众走上街头展开了持续超过一星期的反种族歧视示威，而在部分的城市，示威活动演变成警民冲突及暴民抢劫事件。 特朗普指责“反法西斯主义运动”煽动及挑起暴力事件，美国司法部长巴尔也指，在明尼阿波利斯和其他地方出现的暴力活动，是由“极左翼团体”所推动，并称制造暴力者正转移到其他示威热点，但他没有进一步说明相关情况。 美前防长马蒂斯斥特朗普故意分裂美国人此外，美国国防部前部长马蒂斯斥责特朗普故意分裂美国人，甚至扬言派军队镇压平民，并指“美国这三年没有成熟的领袖”。 这是马蒂斯2018年底因特朗普决定从叙利亚撤军而辞职以来，首次公开批评他的前上司。 在遭到马蒂斯狠批后，特朗普发推文猛烈还击。他说：“也许奥巴马和我唯一的共同点，就是我们都有幸解雇了马蒂斯，（这个）世界上最被高估的将军。我向他要了辞职信，感觉棒极了。他的绰号是‘混乱（Chaos）’，我不喜欢，我把它改成了‘疯狗’。” 美国前总统卡特周三发声明敦促当局，结束歧视性执法和其他破坏美国民主的不公正行为，并指美国“需要一个更好的政府”。他也是第四位就此事件公开表态的前总统；此前克林顿、小布什和奥巴马已先后发言。 奥巴马发表书面声明后，周三也首次发表视讯讲话，呼吁美国进行警察系统改革，并促请每一位市长检讨下辖警局使用暴力执法的政策，包括禁止向正在移动的车辆开枪、禁止警察使用勒颈等暴力手段等。他强调，美国没有能力一举根除长达400年的种族主义。他说：“在过去的30年、50年中，你们所有人都在努力改变现状，我们也看到了努力的成果。” 奥巴马引述马丁路德金的一句名言：“道德宇宙的弧线很长，但它会向正义弯曲。”他说，弗洛伊德事件是美国结构性的问题，是历史悠久的奴隶制、《吉姆·克劳法》（种族隔离法）、种族歧视和制度化种族主义的结果。但他也说，弗洛伊德的悲剧是解决美国潜在问题的契机，并呼吁美国少数族裔青年们保持希望。 |   Artificial Intelligence / Machine Learning weekly classes (ONLINE)  ALL-IN-ONE ONLINE REGISTRATION SOFTWARE        Principal,  Tel: (301)906-6889; (240)912-6290 Licensed in MD, VA, DC, WV, PA, DE, NC, SC, FL WeChat ID: sunnychenyuqing NMLS # 1220187 President, Principal Loan Consultant, Leader Funding, Inc.  电话: (240) 784-6645 Rockville, MD Phone: 301-366-3497  |
